The U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, has warned that the country could withdraw from the International Energy Agency (IEA) if the agency continues pushing its current climate-focused agenda and fails to return to neutral, demand-driven energy forecasting.
Wright criticized the IEA’s outlook, calling its forecast that oil demand will peak this decade “just total nonsense,” arguing that it conflicts with OPEC’s projections, which predict demand will continue to rise through 2050.
“The IEA was established to ensure energy security, not to advocate for particular energy technologies or policies. Their recent forecasts have strayed far from objective analysis,” says Chris Wright.
He stressed that the U.S. is pushing for internal reforms in the agency, stating: “We will do one of two things: we will reform the way the IEA operates or we will withdraw. My strong preference is to reform it.”
In recent years, the energy agency has been pushing green transition narratives, including support for EVs, renewables, hydrogen, and net-zero goals.
But these green-leaning efforts don’t sit right with the Trump administration, whose “drill, baby, drill” policy is a core mandate.
On his first day in office, the 47th U.S. president signed a series of energy executive orders into law that reversed several climate initiatives of the previous administration and reshaped U.S. energy policy.
These actions, he said, were necessary to unleash American energy by prioritizing fossil fuel development.
Both Trump’s U.S.A. and Opec are not just pushing fossil-fuel-oriented policies but also advocating for continuous exploration and production of hydrocarbons.
The IEA sees global oil demand peaking in 2030, while Opec’s secretary-general says “there is no peak in oil demand on the horizon” until 2050. Both sides have been in a Cold War-like relationship regarding this subject.
Meanwhile, the latest forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says the country’s oil production will grow by around 160,000 b/d this year but is projected to decline in 2026 as producers slow down drilling activity.
“Declining oil prices have contributed to U.S. producers slowing their drilling and completion activity this year,” the agency reads.
“As a result, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will decline from an all-time high of just over 13.4 million b/d in Q2 2025 to less than 13.3 million b/d by Q4 2026.
Consequently, the U.S. is issuing a stark warning to the IEA (not EIA) to either return to what it sees as objective oil demand forecasting or face a potential Washington exit from the agency.
Before now, Republican Senator Barrasso had recommended that the IEA return to its energy security mission of 1973 during the Arab oil embargo, when industrialized Western nations found themselves vulnerable to supply disruptions and price shocks.
The senator, in a written report in December 2024, called for what he described as “structural reform” to save the agency from its wayward path.