South Africa’s Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister, Gwede Mantashe, has announced that the government is preparing to lift a 14-year moratorium on shale gas exploration in the Karoo Basin.
The move comes as long-delayed regulations are finalized, and officials say they are ready for competitive bidding applications once the rules are in place .
The Karoo region, known for its fragile, semi-arid environment, has been off-limits since environmental and regulatory concerns halted all shale gas activities.
Mantashe stressed that exploration is “only a matter of time,” insisting that protests are often backed by foreign NGOs, but stressing the importance of striking “a balance… between development and managing climate change”.
Massive gas potential targeted for exploration
The Karoo Basin is believed to host between 209 to 390 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of technically recoverable shale gas, according to estimates from PASA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Local academic research suggests somewhat lower figures of about 13 to 20 tcf, but even modest yields from the basin could sustain between 1 to 2 GW gas-fired power plant for decades.
Falcon Oil & Gas remains the only company currently holding dormant exploration rights after Shell withdrew in 2022.
Falcon’s core area focuses on the Whitehill Shale, believed to contain about 20 tcf of recoverable gas.
Regulation, auctions, and environmental oversight
South Africa expects to launch its first competitive bid round for shale gas blocks by 2024 or 2025 once an updated regulatory framework is in place.
“We are just waiting for the final promulgation of regulations. We are going to lift the moratorium and ask people to apply for it. We want that shale gas to be exploited,” Mantashe said last November.
“If you stop development, you are going to have consequences further down the line, and to me shale gas is used in many countries, including the United States.”
At least 10 onshore blocks are slated to be released via competitive auction, including areas previously held by Shell.
However, potential environmental impacts remain a major concern.
Climate critics fear water contamination and harm to agriculture, particularly in the water-scarce Karoo.
The government has committed to conducting public consultations and imposing strict environmental regulations.
The country’s energy ministry says new and better fracking rules are currently under final review to open up the long capped massive gas acreage for business.
A game-changer with risks
Minister Mantashe described the Karoo shale play a potential “game-changer” for South Africa’s energy-deficient economy,
However, he also stressed that success on the project will depend on robust regulation, environmental stewardship, and geological realities.
The minister is adamant that the Karoo holds a lot of benefits, saying he was prepared for another round of backlash from critics.
With national power outages persisting and energy prices rising, officials argue that domestic shale gas development could support a just energy transition in tandem with renewable investments.