On the 28th of October 2025, just before the Sun awoke from slumber, the BBC (and other news outlets) reported, “Jamaica is bracing for the world’s strongest storm this year – and possibly the strongest on record for the island nation.”
Up to 40 inches of rain and wind speeds of up to 282 km/h was possible.
The Jamaican information minister, Dana Dixon, said those are strange numbers in terms of rainfall in Jamaica.
The government has done everything it can to prepare for a storm “the likes of which we have never seen”, Dixon said.
Hurricane Melissa and the chemistry of storms
Hurricane Melissa, a slow-moving system, has already claimed seven lives—three in Jamaica and four across Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Initially projected to sweep through Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas, Melissa’s sudden escalation into a Category 5 hurricane caught experts off guard.
It now ranks as the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record and the most powerful of the year.
While hurricanes are common in the Atlantic, climate change is intensifying their impact. Warmer oceans and rising sea levels increase the risk of coastal flooding and fuel stronger storms. In fact, warmer seas can make powerful hurricanes up to 100 times more likely.
Warm water acts as a hurricane’s energy source. As it evaporates and condenses, it releases heat that boosts wind speed and rainfall. A warmer atmosphere also holds more moisture, amplifying precipitation.
Melissa hovered for a week over waters 1.4°C above average, rapidly intensifying from a tropical system to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours.
Its central pressure dropped to 892 millibars, matching the infamous 1935 Labor Day hurricane—an indicator of extreme intensity.
As warm, moist air rises in the storm’s core, it creates a low-pressure zone. The greater the pressure difference between the center and surrounding air, the faster the winds rush inward, strengthening the storm and drawing in more water.
How did Melissa strike the Caribbean?
Melissa hit Jamaica while it was a Category 5 force, but some hours later, its wind speed reduced to 240 km/h.
As a result, it was downgraded to a Category 4, even as the National Hurricane Centre warned that flash flooding and a dangerous storm surge are ongoing.
It then downgraded to a Category 3 as it approached Cuba, but then strengthened back to Category 4 with storm surges projected to be as high as 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels.
But as it eventually hit Cuba, it further weakened back to Category 3 with wind speed of 205 km/h.
The reasons for its fluctuating weakening and strengthening was due to the warm ocean.
As Melissa moved across the island, its fuel source – the warm ocean – was cut-off.
But once its centre crossed Jamaica back into the warm waters, it re-intensified back to a Category 4 hurricane.
What damage has Melissa had?
In Jamaica, the impact of the hurricane was immense. Numerous buildings and roofs were destroyed with trees uprooted, amidst floods and thunderstorms that also cut off parts of the cities, and other infrastructural damages.
About three-quarter of the population was without power, and most phone systems were unavailable.
Jamaica has a catastrophe bond (a type of insurance for the country), but most Jamaicans don’t have the economic safety net to get back on their feet in the interim.
This scenario can also be expected in the other Caribbean nations, as they all grapple with economic difficulties and infrastructural challenges.
What is the cost of this damage?
Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, thinks the total damage and economic loss to the Jamaican economy could be as much as $22bn; more than Jamaica’s GDP of $20bn.
Despite the intensity and destructive nature of the hurricane, in Jamaica, 3 babies were delivered while it passed over the island; 4 people are declared dead though.
While in Haiti, which is significantly less developed, at least 23 people died in river floods.
Cuba, which is historically more prepared for climate disasters, reported widespread flooding in lowland areas – which will affect winter crops – as well as power shutdowns.
However, as Melissa approaches and crosses The Bahamas, it’s been downgraded to a Category 1 storm, with maximum wind speeds of 150 km/h.
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