When those who contribute the most to climate change are so powerful that they can not only boycott solutions but also veto every decision to address the crisis, what makes “the vulnerable” believe they can succeed at every step toward solving the problem?
Cop30, which runs from November 10 – 21, feels uninteresting to me—not because of its host Brazil, but because the lead-up to the summit revealed disturbing narratives.
International support for climate action has waned in recent months since President Donald Trump returned to the White House.
Trump’s fossil fuel agenda
Trump isn’t only a climate change skeptic; he has made it clear that the U.S.—the world’s second-largest carbon emitter and de facto ruler of the global economy—would prioritise fossil fuel development over renewable energy.
Within his two non-consecutive administrations, Trump has rolled back more than 125 environmental rules and policies, weakening restrictions on emissions, drilling and energy production.
In January, the newly inaugurated 45th U.S. president signed a letter to the UN to begin a second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
Although the process is not yet complete, the White House confirmed earlier this month that no “high-level officials” would attend Cop30.
Since his return, Big Oil, once cautious about announcing billions in investments, now does so openly and without fear.
Bill Gates: Refocus on improving lives
Before Cop30 began, Bill Gates, a notable contributor to climate efforts, urged a shift in focus.
“Although climate change will have serious consequences – particularly for people in the poorest countries – it will not lead to humanity’s demise,” Gates said in his 17-page memo to Cop30.
He described the summit as an opportunity to “refocus on the metric that should count even more than emissions and temperature change: improving lives.”
“I’ll let the temperature go up 0.1 degree to get rid of malaria. People don’t understand the suffering that exists today,” Gates added.
The Microsoft founder admitted that pulling back from climate investment was a “huge disappointment,” though he considered it necessary.
Fossil fuel lobbyists flood Cop30
A report by the Kick Big Polluters Out coalition claims that Cop30 hosted more fossil fuel lobbyists than the delegate list of every attending country outside Brazil.
- Over 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists were granted access, meaning one in every 25 participants was tied to the industry.
- Attendance was lower than in previous years, yet lobbyist numbers rose by 12% compared to Cop29 in Baku.
This raises serious questions about corporate capture and the credibility of Cop negotiations.
Big Oil increasingly views the summit as an opportunity to justify continued fossil fuel development—despite scientific warnings of its harmful impacts on human health. That has been their playbook.
ICJ ruling: A landmark but toothless
In July, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that continued fossil fuel expansion, extraction, consumption, and subsidies may constitute an internationally wrongful act.
The advisory opinion declared that states have a binding legal obligation to address fossil fuels and climate change.
Yet without clear punitive measures against fossil energy companies, enforcement remains uncertain—especially when many Cop participating countries rely heavily on oil and gas for foreign exchange earnings or economic stability.
Their delegates’ positions inevitably lean toward encouraging fossil development.
The Guardian reported last week that 57% of global oil and gas production in 2024 came from 90 fossil fuel firms.
These same firms sent substantial numbers of lobbyists to UN climate talks from 2021 to 2024, reinforcing their influence over negotiations.
Africa’s heavy presence at Cop30
Despite being the most vulnerable region to climate impacts, African nations continue sending large delegations to Cop summits.
- Nigeria, with 150 million “multidimensionally” poor people, sent the third-largest delegation (749 delegates) to Brazil.
- China, the world’s largest emitter, sent only 789 delegates out of a population of 1.3 billion.
- The U.S., the second-largest emitter, sent no official delegates.
Preliminary registration data as of November 15, 2025, shows South America (due to host Brazil) and Africa had the highest attendance among continents.
Why is Africa spending so many resources to attend a vain show that the biggest emitters boycott or ignore?
The UN summit on climate change risks remaining a mere annual reminder of how far we are from climate goals, unless big emitters like the U.S., China, Europe, Saudi Arabia and Russia show concrete proof of meaningful action they have taken to address the climate crisis.
Until then, the hope of a fossil-free world will remain a dream.
This is one key reason why I think Africa should reconsider her priorities.
Rather than expending scarce resources on a climate agenda the Global North treats as secondary, the continent would be better served by harnessing its vast fossil energy reserves to close the electricity gap and drive economic transformation.
Mungu ibariki Afrika!