A draft finance bill prepared by Cameroon’s Ministry of Finance indicates that the government plans to cut its projected oil and gas revenues for 2025 by 93.3 billion CFA francs ($153.1 million), a 12.7% decrease from earlier estimates.
The ministry is proposing amendments to the 2025 state budget, initially approved by parliament in November 2024.
Under the revised forecast, expected revenues from oil and gas sales, including corporate taxes from petroleum companies, are now estimated at 641.5 billion CFA francs (about $1.05 billion), down from the original 734.8 billion CFA francs ($1.21 billion).
This adjustment follows shifts in both global oil markets and domestic production, according to the latest Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document (2026–2028).
Falling royalties and declining output
While corporate tax revenues are expected to remain stable, royalties from the National Hydrocarbons Corporation (SNH)—Cameroon’s state-owned oil company—are projected to fall by 74.7 billion CFA francs ($122.6 million).
The updated figure now places SNH royalties at 495.5 billion CFA francs ($813.3 million), down from the initial 570.2 billion CFA francs ($935.9 million).
The government attributes the revenue shortfall to a combination of lower global oil prices and declining domestic production.
Cameroon’s crude oil production, which once peaked at 186,000 barrels per day in 1985, had declined to 62,000 b/d by 2012.
For 2025, oil production is projected at 19.81 million barrels, down from 20.71 million barrels in the original budget.
Similarly, gas output is now expected to drop to 79.2 billion standard cubic feet (bcf) from the previously forecasted 92 bcf.
The revision also reflects the easing of oil and gas prices following a brief spike during the Iran-Israel crisis.
The initial benchmark oil price assumption of $72.84 per barrel has been adjusted down to $66.94.
Currency pressure compounds outlook
Cameroon’s 2025 oil revenue projections are further constrained by foreign exchange fluctuations.
The original exchange rate of 597.69 CFA francs per US dollar has since risen to 609.12 CFA/USD, reducing the local currency value of oil exports.
Despite still funding a significant portion of Cameroon’s budget, oil and gas revenues now account for less than 10% of the total budget, compared to as much as 25% in previous years.
If anything, this signals a strategic shift by one of Africa’s most resource-rich countries to reduce its reliance on the petroleum sector.
In a related development, the IMF recently called on Nigeria to review its $36.6 billion 2025 budget, citing similar vulnerabilities as those which Cameroon is currently seeking to correct.